张北6.2级地震邯郸地区前兆异常特征研究

1998年1月10日张北发生MS6.2级地震。在震前一、二年,远在400km外的邯郸地区的多种前兆手段准同步地出现了中期异常变化,这些异常的变化幅度显著,在时间上与张北地震有较好的对应关系,信度较高。分析邯郸地区的前兆异常与张北地震的关系,有利于该区强震监测预报水平的提高,也可为地震前兆特征和机理的深入研究提供实际依据。     

矿产资源型城市工业路径依赖综合诊断方法——基于改进的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数

将矿产资源和生态环境要素纳入常规的柯布-道格拉斯（C-D）生产函数，构建资源-环境-经济综合诊断方法，并应用于以煤炭经济为主的鄂尔多斯市.结果显示，2001~2015年该市综合产出弹性为0.8158，呈规模报酬递减趋势；全市工业路径依赖于2001~2007年处于综合边际收益（MR_KLME）上升过程，2008~2015年进入MR_KLME下降过程.工业增长的生态环境成本明显升高，对MR_KLME起到显著减降作用，导致MR_KLME曲线拐点较常规C-D函数法提前约2~4a.对此，建议加大生态环境保护与治理力度、实施煤炭资源开发总量和强度“双控”等路径依赖破解措施.该方法可纠正由于未考虑资源和环境效应所产生的诊断偏差，有助于更加合理、准确地诊断特定资源型城市工业发展路径依赖的演化特点，并可据此提出有针对性的破解对策.     

海水水质评价的倍斜率隶属函数聚类法

建立了宽域式倍斜率聚类的海水水质评价模式，其函数的右侧斜度为左侧斜率的２倍，勿求权重，直接聚类，海水水质评价实例说明，本文模糊综合评判法和灰色聚类法和更为合理，实用。     

河流水污染定量研究进展

水质模型可定量地反映出水质状况与污染物排放之间的关系,从而为进行水质评价与预测、选择污染控制方案以及制定水质标准和排放污染规定提供可靠的依据.文章从建立模型所采用的数学方法角度出发,较为详细的概述了近年来水质模拟的研究进展,并对确定性模型所存在的问题和河流水质模型的发展趋势做出评价.     

INCREASED BASEFLOW IN IOWA OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY1

ABSTRACT: Historical trends in annual discharge characteristics were evaluated for 11 gauging stations located throughout Iowa. Discharge records from nine eight‐digit hydrologic unit code (HUC‐8) watersheds were examined for the period 1940 to 2000, whereas data for two larger river systems (Cedar and Des Moines Rivers) were examined for a longer period of record (1903 to 2000). In nearly all watersheds evaluated, annual base flow, annual minimum flow, and the annual base flow percentage significantly increased over time. Some rivers also exhibited increasing trends in total annual discharge, whereas only the Maquoketa River had significantly decreased annual maximum flows. Regression of stream discharge versus precipitation indicated that more precipitation is being routed into streams as base flow than as storm flow in the second half of the 20th Century. Reasons for the observed stream flow trends are hypothesized to include improved conservation practices, greater artificial drainage, increasing row crop production, and channel incision. Each of these reasons is consistent with the observed trends, and all are likely responsible to some degree in most watersheds.     

USE OF STAGE DATA TO CHARACTERIZE HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS IN AN URBANIZING ENVIRONMENT1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of a study on the use of continuous stage data to describe the relation between urban development and three aspects of hydrologic condition that are thought to influence stream ecosystems—overall stage variability, stream flashiness, and the duration of extreme‐stage conditions. This relation is examined using data from more than 70 watersheds in three contrasting environmental settings—the humid Northeast (the metropolitan Boston, Massachusetts, area); the very humid Southeast (the metropolitan Birmingham, Alabama, area); and the semiarid West (the metropolitan Salt Lake City, Utah, area). Results from the Birmingham and Boston studies provide evidence linking increased urbanization with stream flashiness. Fragmentation of developed land cover patches appears to ameliorate the effects of urbanization on overall variability and flashiness. There was less success in relating urbanization and streamflow conditions in the Salt Lake City study. A related investigation of six North Carolina sites with long term discharge and stage data indicated that hydrologic condition metrics developed using continuous stage data are comparable to flow based metrics, particularly for stream flashiness measures.     

ANALYZING CORRELATIONS BETWEEN STREAM AND WATERSHED ATTRIBUTES1

ABSTRACT: Bivariate correlation analysis has been widely used to explore relationships between stream and watershed attributes that have all been measured on the same set of watersheds or sampling locations. Researchers routinely test H₀: ρ= 0 for each correlation in a large table and then go on to discuss only those that are declared “significant.” Such test results are inaccurate because no allowance is made for multiple testing, and also because the tests are not mutually independent. This paper reviews the Bonferroni approach to controlling the overall error rate in multiple testing and shows how the approach becomes impractical for large correlation tables. The Hotelling/Williams test is introduced for comparing two dependent correlations that share a variable, and numerical constraints for two such correlations are illustrated. References are also given for testing other hypothesized patterns among dependent correlations, and links to dependent correlation software are provided. The methods are illustrated for watershed and stream variables sampled in 23 small agricultural watersheds of the Willamette Valley, Oregon.     

SEDIMENT OXYGEN DEMAND IN THE ARROYO COLORADO RIVER1

ABSTRACT: The lower reaches of the Arroyo Colorado have historically failed to meet their use under subsection 303(b) of the U.S. Clean Water Act due to fecal coliform bacteria and low dissolved oxygen (DO). Fish kills, especially at the tidal confluence at the Port of Harlingen, Texas, have been reported. Oxygen demand from sediment (SOD) for a river typically has two states‐diffusion limited SOD (SOD) and potential SOD (pSOD), expressed when sediment is resuspended through increased flow or other disturbances. The objective of this research was to measure SOD in the Arroyo Colorado River in situ, estimate pSOD ex situ, and evaluate the relationship between SOD and the depositional environment. We measured SOD and pSOD in the Arroyo Colorado River at up to eight sites over three sampling events. We identified the sample sites based on a modified Rosgen geomorphic index for streambed stabilization. Sites with high sediment deposition potential had high SOD. The average values of SOD between sites were 0.62 g/m²/day (standard deviation 0.38 g/m²/day) and ranged from 0.13 to 1.2 g/m²/day. Potential SOD values ranged from as low as 19.2 to as high as 2,779 g/m³ sediment/ day. Potential SOD can serve as an indicator of the possible impact of SOD from resuspended sediment in stream systems.     

COLD WATER PATCHES IN WARM STREAMS: PHYSICOCHEMICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF SHADING1

ABSTRACT: Discrete cold water patches within the surface waters of summer warm streams afford potential thermal refuge for cold water fishes during periods of heat stress. This analysis focused on reach scale heterogeneity in water temperatures as influenced by local influx of cooler subsurface waters. Using field thermal probes and recording thermistors, we identified and characterized cold water patches (at least 3°C colder than ambient streamflow temperatures) potentially serving as thermal refugia for cold water fishes. Among 37 study sites within alluvial valleys of the Grande Ronde basin in northeastern Oregon, we identified cold water patches associated with side channels, alcoves, lateral seeps, and floodplain spring brooks. These types differed with regard to within floodplain position, area, spatial thermal range, substrate, and availability of cover for fish. Experimental shading cooled daily maximum temperatures of surface waters within cold water patches 2 to 4°C, indicating a strong influence of riparian vegetation on the expression of cold water patch thermal characteristics. Strong vertical temperature gradients associated with heating of surface layers of cold water patches exposed to solar radiation, superimposed upon vertical gradients in dissolved oxygen, can partially restrict suitable refuge volumes for stream salmonids within cold water patches.